Catastrophism vs. Linear Thinking

Or how I think we will survive.

Of late I have been busy trying to understand all the dire and unholy predictions of the coming catastrophes. My friend HJ as been supplying me with dozens of articles from the Internet about the coming socio economic cataclysm. I have also been reading “future books like,” “The Next Decade” George Friedman

The oil shortage. We have already passed peak production. Climate change, rising oceans already flooding low lying areas. As clean drinking water disappears we can look forward to the “water wars.” Increased storm activity ie. This year the US broke records for severe Tornadoes. Increased population plus increasing food shortages makes for social unrest. Food shortages will send people on the move to advanced industrial countries. Border wars, already started by Denmark closing its borders. Same is happening here. All of this will increase with time. Why? Primarily because we are running out of cheap energy producing fuel.

There is a paradox here. On the one hand there is a prediction of a variety of shortages that will only continue to intensify with increased population and exhausted commodities that the people are totally dependent on. I have no problem with the 15 papers I have read and the Friedman book, except for one thing. They are all the result of Linear Thinking. Linear thinking sees things happening in rigid straight lines. Sort of from point A to point B. Yes,there is another way to think about what lies ahead.

It is called catastrophism, (Primarily concerned with geological changes. I am applying it far more broadly.) I arrived here a long time ago through my very own life experiences. First came my mothers sudden death at age 7-8. Then cam the Great Depression of 1929. World War 2, Bombings, Concentration Camps, Holocaust etc etc. Yet through all this people some how or other survived. It lead to what I call the Fish and the Tern phenomena. A swarm of Fish swimming along minding there own business. Out of the sky comes the diving Turn and goodbye a fish. Just one not all, That’s how I see our lives. More important I live my life with that metaphor very much present in my unconscious.

This brings me to the 15 papers and the Friedman book. All of these pieces suffer from linear thinking. They see the world and its resources moving in a clearly predictable direction, straight ahead. Catastrophic thinking does not. This is not to say that the problems outlined in these documents are not real or untrue. No, not at all, What I believe is that crisis, or catastrophes can change our best laid predictions. ie, the Tsunamis and the Japanese nuclear crisis, the Iceland Volcano, 1883 Krakatoa exploded, (maybe that’s how the world was darkened for 40 days and nights. Thank you Emanuel Velikovsky.)

There is also a whole world of ways that individuals have adapted to changing circumstance. Already mentioned. moving away from unlivable places, planting Victory Gardens, de salinating water by filtration, riding bicycles, wind & solar generating,etc. etc.

That’s an important unpredictable for what is up ahead for future generations. They will be faced with some really tough issues. Look, it’s not to say that my generation had some tough ones as well and guess what? Some of us are still here listening to the birds singing and admiring the sunsets over the Bay. We are blessed with a will to live. Yes it may be tougher at times but we will survive. What about, “The pursuit of happiness” Ahaa, that’s a question for another blog.