Talk About Social Unrest

What will unfold. The Tragedy of Failed Expectations.

Back in 2009 I wrote a blog called, “Social Unrest.” (SU) I spoke of the fear that SU stirs in the hearts of the ruling class. Now just 18 months later the world seems to be in the grip of an epidemic of SU. The present SU Scoreboard looks something like this. (This does not include the USA. I will deal with that separately.) Wow this is overwhelming and hard for me to believe.

The young 15 to 25 year old Tunisians, out of work and with nothing but time on their hands decided it was time to bid their their old Dictator goodbye. They succeeded and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali is gone.

In Egypt the youngins have driven out their 30 year President Mubarak. In Libya the people have finally come to the conclusion that having a cuckoo, named Qaddafi running their country is a bad mistake. This does not in anyway help the youngins find a job, or career unless you are one of the few in the Dictators personal department.

In Yemen the protesters have so far managed to get seven lawmakers from from their Dictator Abdullah Saleh to resign and form a new opposition party, Bahrain King Hamid is releasing political prisoners. All are from the opposing tribal group including 23 Shiites. (Reminder, this whole part of the world is made up of thousand year old tribes that hate each other.)

Saudi Arabia. The US needs to be very careful as they are our major oil supplier. The Saudi Sheiks have given the Saudi people interest free home loans and sweeping debt forgiveness. That’s just to keep their folks calm and quiet. In Israel Netanyahu doesn’t know weather to cheer, cry or just pray for what all this means to his countries stability.

Back here in Washington the President and the Secretary of State are hanging by their finger nails trying to decide WHO THE F@%& DO WE SUPPORT AND WHO DO WE CONDEMN?

What happened that triggered all this SU? The jobs-career crisis in Tunisia reached the breach point. Millions of young people between the ages of 15 and 25 began to find each other through a whole new gateway for organized action. Yupp, I believe that the Cyberspace, Internet, Face-book, Twitter, Tweeter, and plain old E mail was the Paul Revere rounding up these out of work, out of patience out of money youth to demand a change. The organizing tool was simple. Lets all gather at the Central square in the middle of the city and demand a change in leadership. It was a perfect way to vent their anger at a very specific target. The dictator, oft times elected, became the rallying cry, “Out With Mubarck in with us.” Who is “the us?” That is the question.

Ahaa’ you got it. What does it mean? Egypt is the best example. As I wrote in my Egypt blog, the Country is and has been controlled by the Army. Mubarak served at their discretion. he left at their discretion. Egypt is being run by them now as it was before Mubarak as it will after Mubarak.

I Have spent a good part of my life in the front lines of SU. We understood the importance of having all your demands clearly spelled out. That required a well disciplined organization that could then guarantee the results of the change. You have to have a plan. Alas, that does not exist. This is true particularly in Egypt where the military holds all the cards. In some of the other places it’s a mixed bag. What have we learned so far?

SU, continues to be a critical element in achieving change. However for it to succeed in guaranteeing the desired change it requires some kind of well disciplined organization that will be able to take over the governance of the change or at the very least participate in its execution. I hope that will evolve.

The tragic side to all this SU is the stark reality that most of these countries do not have the resources, natural and otherwise to create jobs for all those young people out there in the City Square. Yes, there could be a far more equal distribution of the oil wealth for those that still have it. As in Saudi Arabia. That also helps increase the false idea that this oil gravy train gonna run on forever.Yes I’ll say it again. It’s finite. That's what the leaders in those oil rich Kingdoms continue to hide from the masses. Those youthful protesters are in for some real disappointment.

Coming soon the Social Unrest in the US. A horse of a different color.

PS. Abu-Dhabi is the greatest monument to human stupidity ever erected any where's in the world.